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Monday, April 30, 2018

Jacobian transformation and uniform priors in Bayesian inference

This blog post describes the Jacobian transformation and how a uniform prior on a parameter can turn into a non-uniform prior for related parameters.

The Jacobian transformation is an algebraic method for determining the probability distribution of a variable y when we know the probability distribution for x and some transfer function which relates x and y.

Let x be a variable with probability density function f(x) and
F(x) = \int f(x)dx,
and
F(y) = \int f(y)dy.
We can determine f(y) as
f(y) = J(x, y)f(x).
where J(x, y) is the Jacobian. In this example, the Jacobian is given by
J(x, y) = \left|\frac{\partial x}{\partial y}\right|.
Now assume you perform a likelihood analysis and you put a uniform prior on a parameter \alpha. The uniform prior on \alpha between \alpha_{\rm low} and  \alpha_{\rm high} means that
f(\alpha) = \begin{cases}    1 & \text{ for } \alpha_{\rm low} < \alpha < \alpha_{\rm high},\\    0 & \text{ otherwise }. \end{cases}
The result of the analysis will be some posterior distribution for \alpha. Now assume you want to use that likelihood to infer something about another parameter \beta = \frac{1}{\alpha}. The uniform prior which was applied to \alpha is now distorted and we can calculate it using the Jacobian transformation above.

First, we calculate the Jacobian
\left|\frac{\partial \alpha}{\partial \beta}\right| = \frac{1}{\beta^2},
which together with f(\alpha) results in
f(\beta) = \frac{1}{\beta^2}.

Figure 1: A flat prior on \alpha transfers into a strongly scale-dependent prior on \beta = 1/\alpha.
While the prior on \alpha gives the same weight to all scales between 1.5 and 10,
in \beta much more weight is given to large values of \beta
.

Figure 1 shows the prior for \alpha and \beta using 1.5 < \alpha < 10. This means that the uniform prior on \alpha now looks nowhere near a uniform prior on \beta. Given that Bayesian inference always assumes some prior, one has to take into account how priors change in parameter transformations.

Please leave comments/questions below.
best
Florian

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